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Castro came out surprisingly well and made Beto look like a dumbass.
Abbazorkzog said:If the Democrats keep playing into Trump's hand by buying the whole 'he's a disaster he can't PoSsIbLy WiN" hook-line-sinker... well... -gestures around broadly-
Strigix said:Unless something changes, it looks an awful lot like Biden will win the nominations for 2020, and then, yeah, he'll almost definitely lose the general election.
Abbazorkzog said:Elizabeth Warren seems like the best candidate if Ds want to win imho. 1) Used to be a Republican, will come in handy in the general 2) already appeals to WWC voters and would almost certainly win the rust belt, and 3) to add she can run as a common sense halfway point between Bernie and Biden and run as a common sense halfway point between Trump and the establishment in the general election. Win-win-win
Abbazorkzog said:Elizabeth Warren seems like the best candidate if Ds want to win imho. 1) Used to be a Republican, will come in handy in the general 2) already appeals to WWC voters and would almost certainly win the rust belt, and 3) to add she can run as a common sense halfway point between Bernie and Biden and run as a common sense halfway point between Trump and the establishment in the general election. Win-win-win
Aaron Fox said:That isn't going to happen as the data indicates that Biden is the best chance for winning against Trump excluding Russian interference.
Nyvis said:Source please?
Most polls seem to give broadly the same chances for everyone in the top of the primary and we're far enough away from the actual election for error margins to be huge anyway.
Warren is pretty well positioned to unite a convention if the top three stays in the primary until the end too so that's worth considering.
No, he isn't sadly enough. The thing is that -from the 2018 elections- those that Bernie backed literally crashed and burned while the moderates tended to win seats.Biden 'is the best chance' on the grounds that he will be able to peel off Republican 'Never Trump' voters.
The thing is that this is a group that doesn't really exist. Everyone who portrayed themselves as 'Never Trump' in the past has come out as being essentially okay with Trump when comparing him to any of his competition. The moderate centrists that Biden is meant to peel off don't exist, either, as they're mostly a statistical artifact- people with strong opinions that are split between 'Republican' and 'Democrat' platforms average out to 'moderate centrists' from a statistical view, but in order to appeal to them you need to appeal to their strong beliefs, not to their 'moderate' nature.
Additionally, Biden is just really fucking bad at campaigning. We've watched him make dozens of unforced errors in the primaries, and while people have been politely ignoring them in order to push Biden as 'the candidate who can win the general', the fact of the matter is that someone who forgets Obama's name after working with him for 8 years is someone who is gonna crash and burn against Trump.
And, of course, in the unlikely event Biden is able to eke out a win, his policies ensure that nothing meaningful will be done to stop the next Trump-like politician from arising. After all, he wants to negotiate with the Republicans, to work together with them, because they're such reasonable, trustworthy people... this is just going to lead to the Republicans being able to recoup their losses from the last few years, revitalize their base, and sweep the next election with a fascist who understands the system well enough to make sure that they never have to worry about being voted out ever again.
Biden is a trap for morons who think that realpolitik means abandoning your own interests before you even reach the negotiating table. We can do better. We have to do better.
Aaron?Fox said:No, he isn't sadly enough. The thing is that -from the 2018 elections- those that Bernie backed literally crashed and burned while the moderates tended to win seats.
Aaron Fox said:Nope, the polls regularly have Biden in the lead oddly enough. Usually something like 52 or 49%. Usually with the rest of the pack rarely getting out of the low 40s until recently. The latest one from SurveyUSA is the latest that has the field closer together. The rest generally didn't give the rest of the pack a chance.
Aaron Fox said:No, he isn't sadly enough. The thing is that -from the 2018 elections- those that Bernie backed literally crashed and burned while the moderates tended to win seats.
Nyvis said:How much of that is them challenging incumbents/people backed to the hilt by the democratic establishment and party rather than a moderate vs progressive thing though?
Strigix said:We've also, IIRC, got another primary debate coming up tomorrow. The results from Nevada are likely to be pretty significant to the debate, I think, but when we've got so many candidates who all desperately want to believe that there is a path to victory for them, but no one else, I have to wonder... How likely are we to see any of them drop out before super tuesday, or even to see any real realignment because of the debate?