Rise Comics
Site Artist
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Castro came out surprisingly well and made Beto look like a dumbass.
2020 elections thread
- Thread starter Rise Comics
- Start date
Nyvis
Active member
Rematch of Biden vs Harris? Seem like the Biden campaign is stumped by his inability to follow basic coaching so it's not looking great for him. Especially in a debate with the prominent black candidates.
The other debate is probably going to be sedate because despite what their bases do, Sanders and Warren aren't that hostile to each other. They'll probably do some exposition of progressive policy, disagree on what's critical to push it through and the rhetoric to push it into office, but focus on their plans rather than just knocking down the other's castle. Maybe dunk on the centrists in the debate to make themselves look good and attack the frontrunners in the other debates by proxy.
I expect more small candidates to start looking dead in the water and Biden do have a less than satisfactory showing again.
The other debate is probably going to be sedate because despite what their bases do, Sanders and Warren aren't that hostile to each other. They'll probably do some exposition of progressive policy, disagree on what's critical to push it through and the rhetoric to push it into office, but focus on their plans rather than just knocking down the other's castle. Maybe dunk on the centrists in the debate to make themselves look good and attack the frontrunners in the other debates by proxy.
I expect more small candidates to start looking dead in the water and Biden do have a less than satisfactory showing again.
Rise Comics
Site Artist
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Considering that the first half of the last debates amounted to Biden roast 2019, I doubt he's gonna fare any better in the next set of debates.
Abbazorkzog
New member
If the Democrats keep playing into Trump's hand by buying the whole 'he's a disaster he can't PoSsIbLy WiN" hook-line-sinker... well... -gestures around broadly-
Nyvis
Active member
Strigix said:
Will he? He is polling all right, but not crushingly so it's unlikely he can crowd people out of the convention. And his donations are pretty low compared to the other contenders last I checked so that may hint to troubles sustaining his campaign. I think progressives just need to hold on tight and try to chip at his support so that he isn't strong enough to cinch the nomination outright and their voices have to be heard in picking the nominee.
Abbazorkzog
New member
Elizabeth Warren seems like the best candidate if Ds want to win imho. 1) Used to be a Republican, will come in handy in the general 2) already appeals to WWC voters and would almost certainly win the rust belt, and 3) to add she can run as a common sense halfway point between Bernie and Biden and run as a common sense halfway point between Trump and the establishment in the general election. Win-win-win
Nyvis
Active member
Aaron Fox said:
Source please?
Most polls seem to give broadly the same chances for everyone in the top of the primary and we're far enough away from the actual election for error margins to be huge anyway.
Warren is pretty well positioned to unite a convention if the top three stays in the primary until the end too so that's worth considering.
Biden 'is the best chance' on the grounds that he will be able to peel off Republican 'Never Trump' voters.
The thing is that this is a group that doesn't really exist. Everyone who portrayed themselves as 'Never Trump' in the past has come out as being essentially okay with Trump when comparing him to any of his competition. The moderate centrists that Biden is meant to peel off don't exist, either, as they're mostly a statistical artifact- people with strong opinions that are split between 'Republican' and 'Democrat' platforms average out to 'moderate centrists' from a statistical view, but in order to appeal to them you need to appeal to their strong beliefs, not to their 'moderate' nature.
Additionally, Biden is just really fucking bad at campaigning. We've watched him make dozens of unforced errors in the primaries, and while people have been politely ignoring them in order to push Biden as 'the candidate who can win the general', the fact of the matter is that someone who forgets Obama's name after working with him for 8 years is someone who is gonna crash and burn against Trump.
And, of course, in the unlikely event Biden is able to eke out a win, his policies ensure that nothing meaningful will be done to stop the next Trump-like politician from arising. After all, he wants to negotiate with the Republicans, to work together with them, because they're such reasonable, trustworthy people... this is just going to lead to the Republicans being able to recoup their losses from the last few years, revitalize their base, and sweep the next election with a fascist who understands the system well enough to make sure that they never have to worry about being voted out ever again.
Biden is a trap for morons who think that realpolitik means abandoning your own interests before you even reach the negotiating table. We can do better. We have to do better.
The thing is that this is a group that doesn't really exist. Everyone who portrayed themselves as 'Never Trump' in the past has come out as being essentially okay with Trump when comparing him to any of his competition. The moderate centrists that Biden is meant to peel off don't exist, either, as they're mostly a statistical artifact- people with strong opinions that are split between 'Republican' and 'Democrat' platforms average out to 'moderate centrists' from a statistical view, but in order to appeal to them you need to appeal to their strong beliefs, not to their 'moderate' nature.
Additionally, Biden is just really fucking bad at campaigning. We've watched him make dozens of unforced errors in the primaries, and while people have been politely ignoring them in order to push Biden as 'the candidate who can win the general', the fact of the matter is that someone who forgets Obama's name after working with him for 8 years is someone who is gonna crash and burn against Trump.
And, of course, in the unlikely event Biden is able to eke out a win, his policies ensure that nothing meaningful will be done to stop the next Trump-like politician from arising. After all, he wants to negotiate with the Republicans, to work together with them, because they're such reasonable, trustworthy people... this is just going to lead to the Republicans being able to recoup their losses from the last few years, revitalize their base, and sweep the next election with a fascist who understands the system well enough to make sure that they never have to worry about being voted out ever again.
Biden is a trap for morons who think that realpolitik means abandoning your own interests before you even reach the negotiating table. We can do better. We have to do better.
Nyvis said:
Nope, the polls regularly have Biden in the lead oddly enough. Usually something like 52 or 49%. Usually with the rest of the pack rarely getting out of the low 40s until recently. The latest one from SurveyUSA is the latest that has the field closer together. The rest generally didn't give the rest of the pack a chance.
No, he isn't sadly enough. The thing is that -from the 2018 elections- those that Bernie backed literally crashed and burned while the moderates tended to win seats.
Nyvis
Active member
Aaron Fox said:
This one seems closer to what I've seen than what you describe. The margin of error is colossal so far back, anyway.
Aaron Fox said:
How much of that is them challenging incumbents/people backed to the hilt by the democratic establishment and party rather than a moderate vs progressive thing though?
Nyvis said:
A fairly significant degree, tbh; when I went through a list of the primary victors that Bernie nominated in 2016 who went on to lose the general, they'd all been competing in Republican districts.
There actually doesn't seem to have been that significant a difference in performance between Establishment and the new Progressive wing once you control for the fact that most of the Establishment were incumbents while most of the new progressive wing were not.
Nyvis
Active member
I expect him to cruise to the nomination now. Establishment hacks may want to rig a contested convention, but voters don't want one at all and there's no sign of consolidation in his opposition so they'll keep hemorrhaging delegates to the 15% threshold. And even if they convinced candidates to drop, a lot of their voters would switch to him.
It's time to start thinking about building up for the presidential campaign, and for pressure if he gets in office.
It's time to start thinking about building up for the presidential campaign, and for pressure if he gets in office.
We've also, IIRC, got another primary debate coming up tomorrow. The results from Nevada are likely to be pretty significant to the debate, I think, but when we've got so many candidates who all desperately want to believe that there is a path to victory for them, but no one else, I have to wonder... How likely are we to see any of them drop out before super tuesday, or even to see any real realignment because of the debate?
Darth Herobrine
New member
- Pronouns
- Male or female
Strigix said: